Basketball Parlay

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Thursdays are known for featuring sundry West Coast games out of conferences like the Pac-12 and Mountain West. But for today’s Best Bets, I want to stay in the Midwest because the Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Iowa calls for action on both the spread and the total.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Thursday, February 04, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST at Carver-Hawkeye Arena

Ohio State’s Lack of Size

Particularly on the road, Ohio State has struggled to contain opposing big men. This struggle makes sense given the Buckeyes’ lack of size in the interior. Among its regular starters, EJ Liddell is the biggest at 6-7, 240 pounds.

It is true that Ibrahima Diallo is a taller guy at 6-10. But he is listed as ‘questionable’ with a knee injury. When he was healthy, he only played a few minutes per game because he doesn’t have much to contribute on either end of the floor. Plus, he is way too skinny at 220 pounds and way too immobile to handle stronger and versatile big men.

Opposing Centers

Centers who have thrived against Ohio State at home include Minnesota’s Liam Robbins, who tied his season high with 27 points. Other centers did not produce attractive numbers against Ohio State. But the Buckeye defense still had to pay for devoting excessive attention to centers.

Illinois, for example, scored 81 points in a game that flew over the total posted by betting sites despite only getting 15 points from center Kofi Cockburn. Buckeye defenders collapsed onto Cockburn, often devoting multiple guys to limiting his scoring.

While Cockburn was a perfect 7-for-7 from the field, his biggest contribution was the ball movement that he made possible for his teammates who easily developed an inside-out game in order to procure open three-point attempts.

Luka Garza & Three-Pointers

Star center Luka Garza is used to getting double-teamed. Often times, he’ll take one defender out of the play by using his shoulder to create favorable leverage and angle on a shot attempt.

He’ll also establish great positioning down low by backing down his defender so that he has little else to do in order to score. He can be a bully to back guys down with his superior size at 6-11, 265 pounds. Despite demanding so much focus from opposing defenses, he’s averaging 26.5 points per game.

But an underrated asset of Garza is his ability to read defenses. Garza will often catch a pass away from the basket. As he’s backing down his man, he invites opposing help defense as defenders want to dig or otherwise help out against Garza. Once help arrives, he’ll simply locate the open man whose defender will have left to help out against Garza.

This ability to pass makes Garza all the more difficult to guard than Cockburn, which is why Garza has a drastically higher assist rate. Garza is surrounded by able shooters who will move off the ball and adjust their positioning in order to catch passes from Garza.

Joe Wieskamp and CJ Fredrick are both converting over 45 percent of their three-point attempts. Jordan Bohannon can take over a game. In three different games, he’s drained a least six threes. He’s converting 43.9 percent of his three-point attempts in Big Ten play.

Garza himself is a threat from deep, which we should take note of for our sports betting. Sometimes he’ll set a screen for an Iowa ball-handler and then pop up behind the arc instead of roll to the basket. Ohio State’s defense sometimes wants to devote multiple defenders to the roller. But they can’t guard against the roll this aggressively given the fact that Garza is converting 45.6 percent of his three-point attempts.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Zone

Sometimes, Iowa will play zone on defense. A zone defense will be vulnerable against shooters who want to attempt three-pointers over top of the zone. Zone defense also opens itself up to two-point jumpers that players will attempt after accessing the middle of the paint.

Though it's not reflected on the NCAAB odds board, I like the Buckeye offense in both areas. This is a game where Justin Ahrens should see a lot of minutes. He is converting 50 percent of his three-point attempts this season while producing at least four three-pointers in multiple games.

In the middle of the floor, Liddell, Justice Sueing, and Kyle Young will exploit Iowa because they are all efficient in the mid-range game. Each one is converting at least half of his two-point jump shot attempts.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Man

Iowa will also play plenty of man defense. Here, the Buckeyes’ penchant for ball-screens will be key.

Ball-screens will help a Buckeye attack the paint perhaps in order to suck in the defense or, when the Hawkeyes try to take away the ball-handler’s driving lane, force the defense into scramble mode by locating open teammates.

Per video footage, off-ball screens are likewise common in the Buckeye offense as guys like Ahrens will get themselves open by taking advantage of staggered and other kinds of screens.

Total Verdict

Iowa’s superstar will have a great game and, with his ability to read the defense, will help numerous Hawkeye shooters thrive.

Ohio State will contribute to the point total with multiple guys exploiting the middle of Iowa’s zone and multiple guys working for open three-point attempts against the Hawkeyes’ zone and man defenses. The total posted by sportsbooks will likely go over for these reasons.

Spread Verdict

I don’t see the Buckeyes keeping pace because, based on opposing point distribution from deep, the Hawkeyes are most vulnerable from deep. But the Buckeyes are at their best scoring inside with non-shooters like Young and even bench players like Zed Key who like to work in the post.

The Hawkeyes, though, will be able to accomplish what they do best thanks to Garza’s scoring and their three-point shooters. For the above reasons, parlay Iowa ATS with the “over” for your College Basketball Picks.

Best Bet: Parlay Hawkeyes -5.5 at -108 & Over 156.5 at -108 for +271 odds with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

It’s Thursday night and you’re feeling a little lucky. I’ve put together a three-team college basketball parlay that will have you crossing your fingers for at least five hours between two Big Ten games and a West Coast Conference game. A $25 wager could return $170!

Basketball Parlay Same Game

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Thursday, February 27, 2020 – 07:00 PM EST – ESPN2

Opening Line: Michigan -6.5 (-110) at Bovada

Why Michigan is the Play

Michigan (18-9) are on a five game winning streak after winning back-to-back road games against Rutgers and Purdue. Neither place is easy to play at but Michigan got it done. This whole winning streak began with a win over Michigan State at home too. Michigan has erupted offensively averaging 75.2 points per game in their wins.

Michigan’s average for the season is sitting around 75.4 points per game. They’re playing to their average nicely. The Wolverines are allowing just over 60 points per game in their last five. That’s a 15-point difference in their last five games.

Typically, in the Big Ten, it’s extremely hard to win on the road. Wisconsin is 13-1 at home but 4-6 on the road this season straight up. Historically, Michigan has dominated at home, against the spread, going 21-9-1 in their last 31 home games.

If you take away the road win over Nebraska, Wisconsin lost to Minnesota on the road by 18, lost to Iowa on the road by six, lost to Purdue on the road by 19, and lost to Michigan State on the road by 12. Wisconsin’s last road win came against Penn State on January 11 (if you eliminate Nebraska). How is Wisconsin going to come in and beat a Michigan team that looks like a top-10 team currently?

Michigan’s defense has been terrific as of late and the Wolverines have their leading scorer in Isaiah Livers back on the court. Livers dropped 19 points in their win at Purdue on Saturday.

Not only has Michigan won their last five games but they’ve covered their last five games against the spread. Michigan has their swagger back. I’ll add Michigan -6.5 in my three-team parlay for Thursday, February 27.

Key Stat

• Wolverines are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Free NCAAB Pick: Michigan -6.5 (-108) with 5Dimes

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Thursday, February 27, 2020 – 09:00 PM EST – ESPN2

Opening Line: Ohio State -9.5 (-108) at Betonline

Why Ohio State Is The Play

I already ripped Nebraska when talking about Wisconsin. You know my feelings on Nebraska by now. Ohio State (18-9) has won three of their last four games with the lone loss coming against Iowa on the road. Yes, Ohio State is on the road. Yes, they’re playing Nebraska. This is the same Ohio State team that defeated Michigan on the road early this month.

Ohio State has won six of their last eight games against the spread and have held opponents to 66.4 points per game in their last five games. Ohio State had to go up against Maryland, Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin during this stretch. Those teams are near the top in all offensive categories in the Big Ten. Still, Ohio State found ways to get stops down the stretch.

Nebraska has lost 12 straight games and are sitting in the bottom of the Big Ten currently. The Cornhuskers almost found a way to beat Maryland on the road but couldn’t finish the job. This Ohio State team has some real momentum right now while Nebraska is 0-5 at home against the spread.

Ohio State has been very good down the stretch in Big Ten play and now sit at an 8-8 record. They’re projected to be a 6 seed and anywhere close to a loss to Nebraska wouldn’t help their situation. Ohio State isn’t a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, although, currently, it seems likely. Ohio State beat Maryland as a 2.5 point favorite and got the job done. There was way more pressure in that game than this one.

Ohio State is led by Kaleb Wesson who scored 15 points in the game against Maryland. He averages close to a double-double with 14 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season. Players around him have been inconsistent but it’s easy to come out of a funk against a Nebraska team that’s allowing 76.5 points per game on defense this season. I like my chances with Ohio State as the second team in my three-team parlay.

Key Stat

• Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Free NCAAB Pick: Ohio State -9.5 (-108) with 5Dimes

Pacific Tigers vs. Loyola Marymount Lions

Thursday, February 27, 2020 – 10:00 PM EST

Opening Line: Pacific -1.5 (-108) at 5Dimes

Why Pacific Is The Play

Pacific will look for their 22nd victory of the season and are just 1.5 point favorites against Loyola Marymount who have 10 wins all season. Something’s not right. The Tigers have put together their best season in the West Coast Conference under former NBA point guard, Damon Stoudamire. Pacific have won five of their last six games and they’re still getting no respect.

Have no doubt about it, Pacific has been streaky this season. But right now, they’re hot. It’s the perfect time to take the Tigers. The Tigers are scoring 70.5 points per game and are apparently a very slow-tempo team according to KenPom. They’re 322nd in pace of play this season yet Pacific is still scoring near the 70’s range on a daily basis.

The Tigers are coming off a home win over Santa Clara after they won the game, 87-74 behind Jahlil Tripp’s 29 points on 10 of 16 from the field.

Loyola Marymount is currently 3-7 in their last ten games at home this season and while both teams are 4-1 in their last five, Loyola Marymount is 2-3 in their last five at home.

Basketball Parlay Odds

The Lions rebound 30.1 times per game while Pacific hauls in 36.4 rebounds per game. Pacific’s defense has been much better as of late too. In their last four wins, Pacific has allowed 63.8 points per game. The Lions are averaging 59 points in their last four games offensively. Loyola Marymount doesn’t have much size or length either. I like Pacific as my final team in the three-team parlay.

Key Stat

• Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.

Free NCAAB Pick: Pacific -1.5 (-108) with 5Dimes