Nfl Sports Betting
NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies
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- Understand the basics of NFL betting If you are new to betting on sports, understanding the terminology is a good place to begin. While you may have had a lot of success betting on the NFL at work.
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America’s favorite pastime is football.
The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.
This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.
Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.
That’s right.
Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.
And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.
That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.
According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
Why do most NFL betting systems fail?
Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.
Were it not for the juice, things might be different.
The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.
Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —
So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.
The trick is to take things seriously.
Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.
But don’t be overwhelmed.
If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.
Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.
Our Betting Methodology and System
The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.
This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.
Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time
Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.
A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.
Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”
While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.
What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.
The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.
From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.
For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.
NFL Betting Systems
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?
NFL Spread Bet
The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.
Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.
Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.
In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.
Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…
Moneyline Bet
Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.
Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.
Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.
What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.
As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.
NFL Totals Bet
NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.
Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.
Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.
NFL Prop Bet
A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.
Prop bets come in many different forms.
Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.
During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.
NFL Parlay Bet
You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.
In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.
This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.
In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.
In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.
NFL Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.
When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.
When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.
Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.
It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.
The Most Important NFL Betting Stats
Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.
So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?
Las Vegas Sports Betting Nfl
Well, it might not be what you think.
According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents
In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.
The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.
Seems pretty simple.
The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.
As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.
Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.
Factors for NFL picks?
Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?
I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five
What really matters is the team’s offensive line.
Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.
In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.
You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.
With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.
Biggest mistakes with NFL betting
Money Management
The biggest mistake is money management.
If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.
This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.
It’s simple.
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.
That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
Shop the Numbers
Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.
No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.
Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.
Don’t say yes to the first line you see.
Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.
What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.
Bet the Underdog at Home
There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home
You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.
Slim underdogs regularly win outright.
Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.
Why?
Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.
There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.
Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:
- Chasing your bets
- Getting vindictive
- Trying to win back losses
- Go after big wins to recoup losses
- Overly-promising wagers.
It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.
Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.
There’s no large place for emotion in this game.
When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.
The key to beating them is knowing yours too.
Welcome to NFL-Sportsbooks! This page is dedicated to all thing’s internet sportsbook, but more importantly, using these sites to bet on the NFL. The NFL is a cash cow when it comes to sports bets because football is a globally recognized and loved sport. Billions of dollars alone go into sports bets on just the Super Bowl, the regular NFL season excluded. That is a ton of money being wagered by adoring fans. And where do these fans go to place their wagers? The internet of course! We are going to break doing how and where to go when it comes to betting on the NFL.
PASPA, the federal law that banned sports betting in the United States was lifted in 2018. Since then, many states have been trying to legalize sports wagers. No matter where you live, the use of offshore internet sportsbooks is always legal. These sports betting websites are the most convenient for anyone looking to place a wager this NFL season. Placing wagers on football games has never been easier or more fun than it is when done through an internet sportsbook. These sites offer their members a ton of terrific promotions and wagers that will satisfy even the pickiest of bettors. If you continue reading, you’ll learn more about the art of the NFL online sportsbook and how to use them to your advantage.
Current NFL Odds
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Monday, Nov 2nd, 2020
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Thursday, Nov 5th, 2020
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When it comes to the best NFL sportsbooks, we’ve done the legwork for you. There are so many internet sports betting sites that the task of choosing one can be daunting. Every site that is listed on this page is not only licensed and regulated to operate, they are also legal for all US residents to join. Outside of that, they have some of the best reputations for gambling on sporting events. Their odds are better than any brick and mortar sports betting lounge as they rely strictly on statistics and not local favorites or emotion. All of the sportsbooks listed the best at their business and their business is sports wagers.
Bovada hasn’t been left off of any sports betting review sites’ top ten list since its inception decades ago. Many professional bettors call this site home and use it exclusively during the NFL season along with every other time of year. While the site does not accept players from New Jersey, Nevada, Delaware, or Maryland at the moment, anyone else can sign up and enjoy some of the best NFL betting in the industry (If you live in any of those states, check out our other reviews for sportsbooks open to you). Bovada is sure to have NFL futures listed right after the Super Bowl and will update all of the odds hourly.
One of the best parts about Bovada is their mobile betting feature, which is free to all members. This allows you to access the NFL odds at any time, anywhere you might be. There is no download or extra cost, just sign in to your Bovada account from any mobile device with internet capabilities and you can experience it all from the palm of your hand. This feature even lets you withdraw your winnings and make deposits, as well as maintain your account, its a complete bookmaker that fits right in your pocket.
Nfl Sports Betting Advice
It takes a lot to impress seasoned NFL bettors like us, but BetOnline constantly surprises us with the most up-to-date game lines and their massive selection of propositional odds. They also always tend to have something special going on during the NFL season, such as season bonuses that will boost your bankroll. This is one of the best NFL sportsbooks on the web as is evidenced by hundreds of great reviews. We will include our vote as well.
BetOnline has an awesome feature that will make your NFL betting ten-times more exciting, and potentially more profitable. With the live betting feature, any member can access a live sportsbook during a football game and wager on the current odds, which update constantly throughout the game all the way until the end. This not only gives you numerous opportunities to bet on the game but also lets you take advantage of any big shifts in the odds such as interceptions or injuries.
The NFL season is the most popular time for sports betting in America. The big game itself, the Super Bowl, brings in billions of dollars in wagers alone from US residents. SportsBetting.ag is one site that will be packed throughout the season with fans putting action on the lines in the superior sportsbook. This site brings in players from all over America, accepting all fifty states, and their odds are always up-to-date. Any NFL game can be found in the sportsbook, and all futures odds will be listed as soon as they are available.
SportsBetting.ag wants to help new players get on their feet, and they do this by offering a generous 50% welcome bonus that is worth up to $1000. This can help you to wager on the NFL lines without worrying about depleting your initial bankroll. Just enter the code “SB1000” on the cashier page once you make your first deposit to let the site know that you want to get in on the offer.
Yes! Not only is it legal to use offshore online sportsbooks, since the repeal of PASPA in 2018, but many states are also legalizing sports betting or are in the process of doing so. Whether or not you reside in a state where it is legal to wager on sporting events makes no difference in legally joining an offshore sportsbook. These internet sports betting sites are located offshore and therefore are not under the jurisdiction of the United States. They are licensed, regulated, and legal by the countries they call home. All residents of the U.S. are within their rights when it comes to legally participating in internet sports wagering.
If you’ve never been a part of a sports betting site, be ready to have your mind blown at how much you’ve been missing. These sportsbooks have been legal and in operation for decades. That’s decades of bets on the NFL you’ve missed out on. This page will help the bettor better understand all that is an offshore internet sportsbook and just how much they can gain from joining. Recommendations for the best sites to join are also part of the package in this guide.
Internet sportsbooks have various ways for players to deposit money into their accounts as well as take money out. The most popular form to do both is with the use of Bitcoin. This form of cryptocurrency is the fastest and most secure way to get the money both in and out of your account. There are also no fees when it comes to making transactions with Bitcoin and they have the highest maximums for both withdrawals and deposits. All you need is to set up a Bitcoin wallet and you’re ready to use it wherever you’d like on the internet.
Outside of cryptocurrency, the second most popular method is the use of credit and debit cards. The problem with this is they have the tendency to be rejected by the bank or credit card company due to the location of the sportsbook. Offshore online sportsbooks are not located within the country but that doesn’t make them any less safe or legal to use. Money orders, bank wire transfers, and checks are other forms of payment accepted by internet sports betting sites. After you choose the sportsbook you’d like to join, check to see which payment methods they use and their rules for each method.
When it comes to NFL betting bonuses, there is no better place than the internet. Offshore online sportsbooks offer their members the best in bonuses. Depending on which sports betting website you join will allow you different rewards. Some sites will offer their new members a 50% deposit match of upwards of $1000 for joining. That’s $1000 extra to wager on NFL games. Other internet sportsbooks will give their members a lifetime of free plays with each deposit they make into their account. Some sites will go as high as $500 per deposit for the duration of your membership. That’s all money you didn’t have before to help increase your odds of winning your sports betting endeavors. There is no land-based sportsbook that will offer their members such terrific deals which is just one more reason to become a member of the offshore sports betting website.
The number of sportsbook wager types that can be placed on the NFL are of both quantity and quality. Money line bets are the most popular bet to place because they are quick and easy. The bettor only needs to place a wager on the team they believe will win the game. Popularity is also rampant when it comes to betting on the point spread in the NFL. Depending on the points that the bookmaker has listed for the match and what side of those points a member bet on will determine whether they won or not. When it comes to betting on the underdog, the team must win outright or lose by less than the spread set up by the sportsbooks. If you wagered on the side of the favorite, they have to win higher marks for potential earnings to the bettor. When wagering on the NFL, a totals bet is a combined number of points that will be scored by each team.
A gambler can choose the over or the under in this bet. All this means is whether they think the score will be over or under what those that made the sportsbook odds have posted. If the bettor chooses correctly, they’ll win the wager. NFL games accept parlay wagers on matchups. Parlay bets have the potential for higher payouts. When it comes to parlaying bets, they may include both halftime points and total game points. Last but not least are prop bets. Of course, there are many other kinds of wagers that can be placed on NFL sportsbooks, these are just the most popular. Prop wagers in the NFL are the most fun and random wagers around. They can be about a team as a whole or a specific player. They range from serious to not so serious. An example of a serious prop bet is putting money on whether or not Tom Brady will throw 3 touchdowns in a game. An example of something less serious is how many times will they mispronounce the name “Favre.”
Every internet sportsbook offers its members a mobile betting option. Depending on what state you’re in, you may even find that your state has a mobile wagering platform of its own. Online offshore sports betting sites have optimized versions of their desktop sportsbooks so that the bettor has access to every piece of information at all times through the use of their mobile device. These mobile versions can be accessed by any device that has internet capabilities. Everything that can be done through your computer can be done through your phone. Mobile sports betting is widely popular these days as everyone is on the go. Even if you’re just sitting on the couch and don’t want to move to get your computer, you can place your bets with your phone. Sports wagering convenience at its finest.
Live in-game betting is the best feature that any sportsbook can offer you. The reason being is because it is the most interactive form of sports wagering out there. You can literally place bets on the next play of a live game. This type of sports betting is fast-paced and the odds and wagers change continuously with the event. It is down to the second gambling experience. Sportsbooks have multiple angles for how the game can be viewed when placing bets. The adrenaline junkie will love the rush from live in-game betting, there’s nothing like it. Everyone should try this form of sports wagering at least once to see how much more interesting it can make even the lowest-scoring NFL game.
The federal ban known as PASPA was lifted in 2018, officially allowing states to legalize sports betting on a state to state basis. Many states have begun the process of legalization while a handful of others have already made wagering on sports legal. Check your current state laws to see whether or not your state offers legal land-based sports betting lounges. When it comes to land-based NFL betting establishments, its more for the atmosphere. Offshore internet sports betting websites not only offer the best odds in terms of the NFL, but they also offer convenience through mobile wagering. This means you can be anywhere and place your bets. So, if you cannot get out of that family occasion to make it to the casino to place your sports wager, you don’t have to miss out because it can all be done from your phone.